Australia has the second highest consumer debt and one of the least affordable housing prices in the World, especially Sydney with lots of foreign buyers from China and India. Prices there almost eclipse Switzerland. 12.000 Millionaires moved to Australia last year, the most amount ANY country received inclusing the USA with 10x more population. Quite amazing. House prices have increased the most out of any country since 2000. I predict this will end here in 2018. I predict, the house prices there will start to decline this year. Interest rates are turning upwards globally and this will add pressure to such a leveraged system as Australias and banks will have to tighten their lending and eventually longterm-rates will rise there too. Australian banks lending toward real Estate like like "Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited" will see their stock price decline. The commodity bullmarket developing in the next few years should help to cushion the fall eventually in the 6 years to come, so no need to leave Australia and run off yet :) In Switzerland, the other overleveraged, foreigner-influenced Real Estate Market i already predicted the peak in 2017. In Switzerland prices in the core center will decline also in 2018 and this will spread to the outer regions and rising interest-rates will pull the market downward. The Swiss Franc will reach its low against the Euro this year in 2018 and will then strengthen in the next few years which will be negative for export growth, therefore eventually help decrease the house-prices together with rising rates. If you own a house there, i would advise to think about selling and retiring in Asia, looking for opportunities there once their dollar-debt-bubble bursts. As a benchmark for future reference to where houseprices are now: Australia: Or one could use the Indicator: Residential Property Prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities, Quarterly percentage change-RPPI Percentage Quarterly Change 8 caps - Timeseries which will update April2018 Switzerland: Comments are closed.
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AuthorPascal |