The High is now in at 1300$.
I will work on my patience and my accuracy since i went in a bit early. Gold is in a general downtrend and will continue to be so for many months in US-Dollars since the Dollar is in a multi-year uptrend. The two can and will rise together but not yet. I read an article about chinese investors who buy stocks based on wether the stock symbol is a lucky number. I wish i could tell you guys that yes, lucky numbers exist but the timing also has to be right! The Chinese Renmimbi will devalue against the US-Dollar and the Shanghai Composite is still in a downwards trend. The best strategy around this is to hold US-Dollars and invest in the DOW Jones as it is still in a bull market and will go up in a appreciating currency so you get currency gains too. Also, banks in China and many Investors think that house prices will just keep going higher and higher. Well, they also thought that in Japan 1989 and in the USA 2007 and then they went bankrubt when prices dropped. If you are smart, you sell your house/appartment now while there are still buyers for it. To see what professional investors and traders can do, I researched the performance of the absolute BEST hedgefunds of the USA over 1 year and 5 year timeframes. During both periods the Stockmarket was rallying making it easy for hedgefunds to make big gains.
The performance that would put my experiment among the Top 20 performers of all hedgefunds is around: 20%-30% gains in 1 year 80%-100% gains in 5 years (15% every year) Top 20 in Mutual Funds made 350% in 10 years (14% every year) Of course we never know which Funds will be the best over the next 10 years. But any Fund who achieves those gains can be considered one of the very best, especially in a "negative interest rate" environment like we now have. Okay lets start this experiment and track how well i do! Since US$ is still the most used currency i chose that currency. 1000 US$ as capital. Most derivatives that i will use are leveraged between 1,5 – 3 so for easy calculation i will assume a leverage of 2. To make this even more interesting i will start this experiment in a bear market! First position: short gold today at 1240$ Status: 1000 Currency Units (havent decided on a currency yet)
Today is the first day of the Trading Benchmark! The goal is to record every trade, thereby finding out how many gains are possible to earn by trading. Longer term it would be nice to create a yearly average return. I will start with 1000 units of currency, probably (USD, EUR or CHF) and keep trading with the gains without ever adding any new capital from any external source. This makes it easy to see the progress. Every financial instrument that can be tracked and traded is allowed. Now let the Benchmark Start :) Cheers! |
AuthorPascal |