I predicted back in November2017 the Danish and Swiss and Australian Real Estate Prices to stagnate and decline in real terms:
https://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/real-estate-crash-germany-denmark-rising-rates-sovereign-debt-crysis-20-predictions I just want to say, this also goes for their neighbours Sweden and New Zealand. Many smaller cities and towns in Europe basically die out. Spain, Hungary, Germany, Southern Italy. This will surpress the Real Estate Market permanently very unlike what we experienced 1996-2008 Basically we are now going into a shift, where over the next 4 years we have to prepare to shift our capital and investment toward Asia, where the growth is. We should also create our carreers so that we can profit from Asias rise over the next decades. Just one example Mongolia doesnt yet have our aging and pension problems. Malaysia has much lower taxes than the USA. Singapores infrastructure is sparkling new instead of crumbling to dust like the USA electricity grid, or Swiss and French Nuclear-Reactors. Beijing has top Universities now. Its just becoming obvious that Asia has much more economic growth upside than "the West" until 2040 Measures for that are for Sweden: http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/index/index_info?Instrument=SE0000337842 OMX Stockholm 30 Index currently at 1573 https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/housing-index?embed Sweden house price index currently around 230 For New Zealand: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-house-price-values https://www.reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery New Zealand is a well run country and has nice tax laws, great nature. Some parts have a nice climate. Its population is relatively youthful and rich. Certainly a nice place. The high-end property market is fuelled by chinese and indians and laws could be passed against that. Sweden is not as nice and taxes are high so there i am more bearish. Just go to a park in Malmö on a sunny summer day... By the way, the idiots saying Scandinavia is a role model with its big government and social system, you know when they had their growth and rise? When they had lower taxes and smaller government! You know when they started stagnating and Nokia going bankrubt for example? After introducing their big government and welfare state. Dah. Just look at the last 120 years of economic policies in Scandinavia. Its interesting! P.S. i promise to make my postings shorter from now on :) I wrote one or two weeks ago about Cryptos recovering. They had indeed put in their low and recovered til yesterday.
Bitcoin just broke its 18.february low a few minutes ago, trading now at 10120$ This signals to me a new downward wave has started. To me this new wave will reveal over the next 2 months if Crytos in general will eventually recover by the end of this year, or if this was really it. I shorted the BSE Sensex India at 35066 with 30k$
https://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/india-stock-market-sp-bse-sensex Now a couple weeks later, im covering my position at 34,010.76 which is about 3.10% profit :) This probably already beats most German hedgefunds for the year 2018 when adjusted for the soon weakened Euro. Life can be this easy. No need for big fancy offices, but you gotta attract the young talent with nice working conditions, oh my pancake is burning gotta go! Australia has the second highest consumer debt and one of the least affordable housing prices in the World, especially Sydney with lots of foreign buyers from China and India. Prices there almost eclipse Switzerland. 12.000 Millionaires moved to Australia last year, the most amount ANY country received inclusing the USA with 10x more population. Quite amazing. House prices have increased the most out of any country since 2000. I predict this will end here in 2018. I predict, the house prices there will start to decline this year. Interest rates are turning upwards globally and this will add pressure to such a leveraged system as Australias and banks will have to tighten their lending and eventually longterm-rates will rise there too. Australian banks lending toward real Estate like like "Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited" will see their stock price decline. The commodity bullmarket developing in the next few years should help to cushion the fall eventually in the 6 years to come, so no need to leave Australia and run off yet :) In Switzerland, the other overleveraged, foreigner-influenced Real Estate Market i already predicted the peak in 2017. In Switzerland prices in the core center will decline also in 2018 and this will spread to the outer regions and rising interest-rates will pull the market downward. The Swiss Franc will reach its low against the Euro this year in 2018 and will then strengthen in the next few years which will be negative for export growth, therefore eventually help decrease the house-prices together with rising rates. If you own a house there, i would advise to think about selling and retiring in Asia, looking for opportunities there once their dollar-debt-bubble bursts. As a benchmark for future reference to where houseprices are now: Australia: Or one could use the Indicator: Residential Property Prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities, Quarterly percentage change-RPPI Percentage Quarterly Change 8 caps - Timeseries which will update April2018 Switzerland: Bitcoin has almost reached my 5000$ that i predicted 3 months ago: https://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/bitcoin-might-have-peaked
Many Cryptocurrencies crashed hard, but some of the ones that i think are most important and which i watch closely have survived this crash quite well so far, without doing any major damage to their longer term uptrend. For Example Monero (XMR) so far touched exactly the last high as expected. NEO didnt even really correct all that much. Ether did a bit more damage to its chart possibly breaking some uptrend lines. Z-Cash is also holding its support wonderfully and just going sideways. Bitcoin of course crashed trough all support and both my numbers showing its really serious. If the correction has stopped now, many of the cryptos should make new alltimehighs by the second half of this year! For example NEO That forecast is nullified for those that develop new lower lows. In Bitcoin in particular i still suspect we could see new lows by May2018 but would accept that we finished the bear market upon achieving a weekly close above 14300$ well most Pension Systems work like this, every worker pays in and every Retiree receive money. It isnt invested, it just goes from the one group to the other immediatly.
Those Systems that do invest, usually invest heavily into Government Bonds, which have now peaked in price and with the low interest rates in the last 10% could not generate enough dividends to make the system work. In 1950 there were more workers, about 15 for less Pensioners about 1 Today its about 2-3 workers for 1 retiree or Pensioner troughout the "Western World" Due to too less children being born and raised nowadays and rising healtcare cost in old age, rising rents, falling house prices, slumping economy, low growth, low interest rate environment, this imbalance will come to a head by 2030 when the Baby Boomer Generation has mostly retired from working/producing as an age group and goes into mostly consuming. Here is a good Video explaining this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmtjJVC_niI You can skip the animated Part and skip to where real people explain the facts ;) I cant remember when i last had a talk about Pension with anyone below age 50, yet its exactly us young people who should be discussing how we can fix the system so that we and our children can also enjoy a good pension in our old age in a sustainable manner. Government and Healthcare and Pension chew up the resources needed for growth and investment for the future, without being productive. I would say, radically tear up the monopolies in healthcare, medicine, medicinal devices in hospitals, invest into AI and robotics in that field, have a discussion if its worth it to give expensive and highly stressful anti-cancer therapy to people over 80, start a discussion how we can organzize our society more efficiently! Allow retirees to be more involved in teaching, in schools, share their knowledge with the young generation, assist the teachers. We got 25% of population retired we only got 1% of population that are teachers! Help them teach the new generation! Especially now that with the EU and Schengen so many people with low education come to Germany, Switzerland, England, Sweden, teachers obviously are above their capacity and could use some help :) Okay.....
I think im pulling the trigger here. Selling the Euro against the Dollar at 1,2450 or 89,19 at the Dollar Index. I know currency FX is really lame, so lets just be open about that and also use no leverage, just as in the Indian Stock Market Trade. I would also like to add long Swiss Franc, Short Euro, but EUR/CHF is at 1,15 and i dont like that there is still upside to about 1,19 plus i was actually expecting the Euro high later, April the earliest. So lets leave some reserve and just use 30k for the Euro/Dollar Trade. Im not sure this trade will come to fruition by end of 2018 its more of a longterm thing maby 2 years. This strategy is basically the least risky i can come up with. After the gains of 2017 were made with one of the riskiest markets in the history of mankind i think its good to calm down a little. Also i want to see if i can also produce gains in different markets and using a more longterm approach, this trade might even take 2 years, but its basically garanteed the Euro will be lower than 1,24 to the Dollar in 2020 im actually convinced we will see new lows below 1,03! by 2021 the latest. I just remembered an email that i wrote to a friend in India, that his Stock Market might peak in 2017, once i wrote him around july, then in November2017.
I even have myself on Video pointing out that possibility on a Conference :) It looks like i was right and the Indian Stock Market has peaked, what a good way to start off the year :) Shorting S&P BSE SENSEX India at 35066 with 30k In this post i will just state some of my thoughts of today about a change in Western Society about the values and dreams and status symbols we chase. And how technology makes most of the old ones obsolete.
To me a Rolex watch looks really boring and ugly. If i see one it looks like a symbol of poverty and boringness. Same with Tag Heuer. Yet those used to be status symbols! Petrol consuming cars, they are loud, they stink in my garage, my friends would say uuh youre polluting the environment, yet that used to be a status symbol! Soon it will be much cheaper to just use Uber if you need a ride, sometimes even comparable to public transport considering uber is much faster in some places. Also imagine if they start autonomous-uber-ride-sharing to work. Less cars less congestion. When i pulled out my S8 phone once, a 12yo girl from the country side went all wild and wanted to play with it! When i say i work trough the internet, students find that uber-cool. Im hearing this often that people would like a location independant job, go travelling. Swiss people spend most of their spare money on travel! Government used to have Universities that were pushing research and making innovations. Now The biggest Artificial Intelligence efforts are made by google i would bet. Private companies are pushing quantum computers which will soon have more calculating power than a brain and come up with new ideas and solutions that we could never have dreamed of. Most new billionaires come from the tech-world, where exponential growth is considered normal. What im seeing is change. A change in the dominant generation and in ideas in living in visions and dreams. Elon Musk wants to go to Mars. Facebook wants internet for everyone. Cryptocurrency people want all kinds of cool things, like digitized assets to bring liquidity into all markets, P2P lending, complete privacy and independance from Government. The technology elite sees itself as the solution to everything, healthcare, poverty, clean water, education. The doctor isnt any longer the saviour, now its the nanotechnology and biotechnology CEO who saves the world (or thinks he is) How things are changing, yet stay the same :) In my post titled: "Bitcoin Bear Market" from 4.January 2018
https://tradingbenchmark.weebly.com/trading-benchmark/bitcoin-bear-market-compared-to-other-cryptos I wrote i buy Ether, to demonstrate that i see Bitcoin falling while other cryptos rise. Then Ether was around 790$ I Sell now around a price of 1100$ per Ether with a profit around 39% This wont count towards this benchmark, it was just a fun-trade to start off the year, otherwise i would have beaten most top hedgefunds for the year 2018 already haha :) Meanwhile Bitcoin has fallen, just like i predicted and is today dangerously close to my second number that would then indicate a serious bear-market might be developing in Bitcoin. Meanwhile Pension Funds and Ponzi-Schemes like AHV(switzerlands pension) as well as the German and Austriacn Pension Systems and many of UK pension funds are sliding deeper into the red, showing clearly a future with lower pensions and more taxation by 2035 when Europes Demographic-Tragedy reaches its worst. There are talks in the USA and California to nationalize pension funds to make up for empty public pension coffers for government employees. Thankfully our leaders arent doing anything about this....... they would probably just make it worse anyway ;) Cheers ;) |
AuthorPascal |