Banks have done extremely well during this downturn! Commerzbank kept rallying the whole time, JPMorgan didnt decline at all
Last years trades of short Euro and short Stocks gave 9% gains plus the other half that was in shortterm Bonds. Pretty lame year but im proud i got those trades right while everyone lost their shit haha ;)
Europe is mostly in Recession Asia is mostly in Recession USA manufactoring and Tech is in Recession Brazil just came out of recession and its not clear yet if they will fall back into recession again, dough stimulus is planned As i said before, i expect the USA Federal Reserve Bank to raise rates in February by 25bps or even 0 and that i see as the pivot, where the FED stops raising rates, we have to observe the 02y yield to see if the market wants higher rates still or not and they are around 4,29% while the effective Fed Funds RAte is at 4.33% https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr So there really is no need to keep raising rates anymore than 0.25bps The markets already expect rate cuts after june and even in Europe inflation has finally peaked, so its just a matter of time until European central banks also can relax about inflation fears. By the way, many many talking heads and finanial analysts keep saying inflation is sticky and isnt going down to 2% again, i call bullshit and say we will see 2% inflation on a 3month annualized basis this year already. And i think Cryptos are sniffing all of this out and will rally for a few months this year And i think Bonds will rally this year, dough bit difficult to time the exact perfect entry So my portfolio for 2023 is Bonds an Bitcoin 85.000 usd in US 02Y Bonds (4.25% price 99.957) https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/us91282cgd74-united-states-of-america-4-25-22-24 15.000 usd in ETHER Cant be sure when exactly Rates will come down Cant be sure exactly When Crypto will rally But im sure both will happen in 2023 this year so just sit back and wait for gains :) I want to add, this is the hardest year ever to predict what will happen. Thats why this is probably my least risky asset allocation since beginning of this blog..... |
AuthorPascal |