Good news! All the above will probably only start hitting us next year and only get really bad 2018-2021:)
So i personally plan a trip trough europe while people still have a reasonably good mood! Sovereign Debt: A third of "Gemeinden" in Zürich (the richest city in the world in the richest country in the world) are soon bankrubt because of new rules. They will have to raise taxes. The highest share of taxes in Switzerland is paid to "Gemeinden" meaning towns and villages so this will affect people a lot. In Germany its estimated that 50% of municipalities are bankrubt. Lets not even think about the situation in Spain, Italy or countries like Slowenia, France ;) and so on.... Then even whole countries are bankrubt! Like Portugal, Spain, Italy they are not competitive and cannot devalue their currency and drown in debt! Brazil seems to go into hyperinflation again and the Dollar-Pegs world wide are breaking. Economic Crysis: Well economics go in cycles and this one is over, simple. Stocks have begun to crash worldwide. 2021 will bring us better times. Real Estate Peaked: Explains itself. One reason is that a 30y fixes loan is not so easy to come by anymore so less leverage to buy expensive houses ergo prices drop. Plus a house is not movable like Stocks, thats a disadvantage during war... Banking Crysis: European Banks are in a real crisis. Swiss banks for example had to pay huge fines to the US extortion machine. Europes Banks have to use Euro debt of member states as reserves like Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy as "Capital Reserves" which will hurt them when they default. Fun fact: in their books they dont have to show them at real value, even if they default 50% or drop in price... Rising taxes and more regulation to catch "money launderers" adds cost. Reduced trade with Russia sure hurt many too. We have the collapse in commodities which has added to the bad loan nightmare. Now stir in the collapse of the Euro which slashes the profit on loans in real terms and voila: Banking Crysis! Watch out Deutsche Bank, you are in free fall! And the chart pattern of Credit Suisse looks pretty similar.....have to get my money out, bye! P.S. looks like the Gold high is in (1200$) last chance to short, before it finally bottoms :) This will be fun!
I am shorting Gold from here 1140 with 69´000 2x leveraged as always. 69´000 is the half of my last balance plus 3.5% gains on the Euro trade. The other half which is now wortha bit less as the euro went up after i exited the trade, stays short Euro. The oil trade is great but i prefer Gold right now as its making such a nice high for me! Those will be two lazy trades i will just hold them into March :) Happy trading :) |
AuthorPascal |