Looking at Bonds i see the biggest bubble in my life!
Governments and even Coorporations started selling 50year and even 100year Bonds! And some of them for really low interest rates. Historically speaking all of them for really low interest rates. Clearly people were speculating that the ECB will buy them in the end as no sane person would otherwise buy debt from Spain,Ireland,Italy and definitely not for more than a year duration. To show where we are at here the 10y Bond rates: Switzerland -0,53% (jep still garanteed to loose money if you buy them) Germany 0,05% Singapore 1,86% UK 1,09% (after Brexit, whiles its currency just went from 1,50 to 1,20 to the dollar) France 0,33% Italy 1,38% (we will laugh at this in 2019) Spain 1,12% Netherlands 0,16% Portugal 3,27% Greece 8,22% India 6,75% USA 1,80% Mexico 6% Brazil 11,40% (their currency is on the verge of hyperinflating after losing half its value since 2011) So, here comes my prediction: I think that 2016 will be the highest yearly close in German Bunds. 2017 should get volatile to the downside and by 2018 German bonds should be in crashmode. The ECB cant overpower anyone else and when all Bonds worldwide start to get sold because of the second round of the Sovereign Debt Crysis not money printing will be enough to overturn all other market participants. So, 2016 the highest yearly close in German Bunds and by 2018 European Bonds will be crashing and rates rising fast. For American Bonds i think it could get interesting as if the DOW breaks out and rallies further Bonds could rise once more after a stock crash. But generally id say American Bonds have peaked. Mr. Meienberg After such a move, a bounce is likely, so i close half of my position here at 17,90$ So 53,600 is now in cash for new trades. I expect this Silver downturn to continue until November-Dezember but maximum mid 2017 Then a new bullmarket for metals should start with European Banks crashing, Bonds crashing, interest rates soaring, Real Estate falling in price, Civil Unrest flaring up in some cities, War in the middle East and Japan-China, More war-attempts from/against Russias empire building, Unemployment soaring because of automation and software. By 2020 we should have affordable 4k Virtual Reality which will be very interesting. By 2030 many Artificial Intelligences will far wil do incredible things never thought possible in many fields. Okay i dont know what happened, but the last couple of posts are gone!
I clearly remember the last thing i did wa shorting Gold and those posts are just gone. This is a mess! Well, this sucks, lets clean this up. Im just gonna start new from here at 100.000$ And think about hosting my own website in the future..... *$%!#&* you weebly! I guess i get what i pay for. Lesson learned grml... First trade short silver at 19,20$ stop loss at 1358 daily close for Gold (yes my stop loss is in Gold but my trade in Silver) 2x leverage my target to take profit around 16$-17$ or Dezember from a timing perspective I see something interesting happening in Silver in February 2017 we will see what it is when we get there. Roger over and out :) |
AuthorPascal |